The development trend of the hottest photovoltaic

The future development trend of photovoltaic application market is distributed photovoltaic power generation

in just a few years since the financial crisis, the domestic photovoltaic industry has continued to perform a thrilling story of ups and downs. Enterprises in the industry are struggling in the mire of the "jungle age". After several cycles of life and death, they still cannot find a breakthrough in industrial upgrading

with the increasingly clear policy guidance of the management, at least in terms of structure and framework, the development blueprint of the domestic photovoltaic application market has become clearer. At the same time, the new planning objectives clearly encourage distributed photovoltaic power generation, and the intention of the policy to guide the development direction of photovoltaic applications is also obvious. An official of the National Energy Administration explained that encouraging distributed development can avoid and solve problems

it can be seen that the government's intention to vigorously develop the domestic solar photovoltaic power generation application market has been clear, and the main direction of attack also clearly points to distributed utilization

based on this, we can analyze photovoltaic as follows

investment rating and Valuation: under the background of gradually emerging economy and blocked exports, the government issued the notice on applying for large-scale application demonstration area of distributed photovoltaic power generation. We believe that this is a programmatic document, and the distributed application of photovoltaic will be developed on a large scale under the stimulation of policies. Focus on two types of stocks: 1. Construction photovoltaic construction enterprise, Xingye solar energy. The company is a leading domestic construction photovoltaic enterprise, with rich orders on hand; 2. Inverter:

sunshine power supply, we expect the company's annual eps0.63, 0.75, 0.86, the corresponding P/E ratio is 13, 11, 10, maintain the buy rating

key assumptions: the government issued the second batch of golden suns, and the country cooperated with government policies. The reasons are as follows: 1. Photovoltaic power generation matches the peak value of industrial and commercial power consumption, and the industrial and commercial electricity price is high, which is suitable for distributed applications; 2. Photovoltaic economy is gradually emerging, and industrial and commercial parity is coming; 3. The export is blocked. If there are special requirements, it is urgent to open the domestic market to digest production capacity

different from the public understanding: the continuous decline in the cost of photovoltaic power generation is approaching the industrial and commercial electricity price, and the subsidies required are becoming less and less. The distributed application will develop greatly, and the blocked export will accelerate the domestic application process

catalyst for stock price performance: the state introduced the second batch of golden sun projects, and the company received orders

core assumption risk: poor policy implementation

during the 12th Five Year Plan period, China will focus on building a safe, stable, economic and clean modern energy system. In this era, the whole society is paying more and more attention to the development of renewable energy and has become the focus of media reports. For example, China Energy News recently planned to launch a series of reports focusing on renewable energy. After reading it, I was deeply touched and wanted to talk about some views on how to promote the healthy development of China's photovoltaic power generation industry

in recent years, in order to start China's photovoltaic power generation market, the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power generation has been launched by means of concession bidding, and large-scale photovoltaic power stations have been constructed by means of conventional power station construction and management, which has played an important role in promoting the construction of photovoltaic power stations in China. Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu, Tibet and other western regions have built a number of photovoltaic power stations, and other regions have high enthusiasm for building large-scale photovoltaic power stations

however, the author believes that the main feature of solar energy resources is that they are widely distributed, and the place where the sun shines also urges Dutch post to manage packaging materials more rationally. Therefore, the advantage of solar photovoltaic power generation is distributed application. It should be to install photovoltaic systems in a way that combines with users' electricity, connect low-voltage power distribution, and realize nearby development and utilization, Large scale photovoltaic power generation should not be built intensively and used in the form of long-distance high-voltage transmission; Or at least in the near future, photovoltaic power stations should not be built on a large scale in this way. Maybe in a period of time, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will be much lower than that of conventional energy power generation. It is also possible to take advantage of the rich land resources and good solar energy resources in the west to build a large photovoltaic power generation base and send power to the central and Eastern load center. Therefore, the recent construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation system on the user side is more in line with the current technical status of photovoltaic power generation, and should be given key support

the application of distributed photovoltaic power generation should be built by users themselves or in cooperation with relevant investors. Small photovoltaic systems should be installed on the top of buildings or on the idle land nearby. The generated power mainly meets the users' own power needs, and the excess power should be exchanged with electricity, which provides standby services; Users should be encouraged to actively build distributed photovoltaic power generation systems, create a policy and market environment for thousands of households to install and use photovoltaic power generation systems, and finally form a situation in which social electricity consumption increases while electricity provided by electricity decreases

in recent years, the purpose of implementing the "golden sun project" is to support the application of user-side distributed photovoltaic power generation system in the form of investment subsidies, but the implementation effect is not ideal. In addition to some technical and management reasons, it is mainly restricted by the power management system

China's current power management system is characterized by a single buyer and a single service provider who purchases all the power generated by various power stations and provides power supply services for all users. Power enterprises integrate power purchase, transmission, distribution and sales, with the main goal of expanding the power sales market and increasing the revenue from power sales. Therefore, power enterprises will have natural resistance to any behavior that affects their sales of electricity and affects their earnings. At the same time, restricted by the current power management system, distributed photovoltaic power generation is difficult to get large-scale application, and all kinds of capital turn to invest in the construction of centralized large-scale photovoltaic power stations

in view of the above reasons, the author believes that in order to promote the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, it is necessary to reform the power management system, realize the separation of transmission and power supply, open the power market at the user end, turn the power enterprise into a specialized company providing transmission services, take the amount of electricity transmitted as the basis for profit, and establish an open, transparent, competitive and orderly power market mechanism to improve energy efficiency Promote the development of new energy to provide important institutional guarantee

in the current situation that it is difficult to reform the power system, power enterprises, as the operators and managers of the power system, should actively support the utilization of distributed power generation systems such as solar photovoltaic power generation from the long-term interests of the country, and jointly promote the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation with the support of national policies. Zhonghua glass () Department